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OSA Industry Development Associates (OIDA) has published a forecast on global production rates of the optics and photonics industry. The forecast details a growth in sales of approximately 5 percent in 2017 from 2016 for optics and photonics-enabled products. OIDA estimates that 2016 production of these products came to $405 billion, approximately 2 percent below 2015.
According to Dr. Tom Hausken, senior advisor for The Optical Society - Companies concentrated in optics and photonics in the life sciences, communications, security and machine tools sectors performed well in 2016. Manufacturers of display panels underperformed in 2016, due to falling revenues on maturing products and the lack of new business from innovative products, such as 4K TVs. Also, the continuing strength of the U.S. Dollar means that the value of production in other currencies is discounted when converted to dollars for this estimate.
The global difference in growth rates proved to be variable across continents. Overall, suppliers in North America and Europe fared better in 2016, given their diversification across sectors that performed well. Suppliers in Asia fared worse because of their strong concentration in displays and other high volume products.
In the U.S., there is the perception that the coming year is particularly undefined and perception drives business decisions such as a delaying purchases of capital equipment. For a major economy, the U.S. is in a stronger position than most. With the U.S. presidential election is now decided, new policies are still to be announced, creating ambiguity on the potential impact to several industries, including optics and photonics. Other factors contributing to the yet to be decided include: the value of the U.S. Dollar, oil prices, the impact from the Brexit vote in the U.K., the upcoming elections in Europe, and the conversion of China from an economy driven by debt-fueled construction to one driven by consumer spending.
Overall, OIDA foresees that the optics and photonics industry will show modest growth in 2017, with some expected seasonal variation. The direct impact of major developments will take time to play out, with some companies both gaining and losing. A stronger recovery will be tempered by the continuing cloud of uncertainty, by slowing sales of optics and photonics that go into or fabricate capital equipment.
